By Chris Moore

chris.moore@panews.com

 

NEDERLAND — Nederland and its school district are expected to grow over the next 10 years, according to a demographic report conducted by Templeton Demographics, issued during the school board meeting this week.

According to the study, Nederland has 160 lots to build on. Four have active homebuilding.

According to the study, Southeast Texas had job growth of 1.9 percent since last year, which is greater than the national average of a 1.5 percent increase. The unemployment rate for Jefferson County has dropped to 7.6 percent (-0.9 percent), with the national average at 4.5 percent.

The study stated that the area will see a increase in jobs of 7,500 with more than 500 of the jobs being permanent.

NISD has 820 residing in more than 2,650 multifamily units and 2.1 percent of the district’s students live outside of the district.

Birthrates over the last few years also indicate a spike on the horizon. The study showed that birthrates within the district strongly correlated to the number of kindergarten enrollments five years later. The total number of births per year increased every year since 2012.

Templeton Demographics predicts that NISD will add 1,177 students over the next 10 years. For the 2017/2018 school year, NISD’s enrollment was 5,388. The study forecasted that number to jump to 6,565 by the 2027/2028 school year.

“A lot of the smaller grades have higher enrollment numbers than the higher grades,” Templeton Demographics consultant Trent Smith said. “As those smaller classes graduate out, the lower grades with higher enrollment will move up through the grades, which will affect your overall enrollment. That’s where a lot of those numbers are coming from.”

Smith said there is vacant land that will likely be developed over the next 10 years.

“People are kicking tires already,” Smith said. “We leave room for those things. It won’t go much longer than that. Because of the job growth (Nederland) is expected to see over the next 10 years, and based on trends, all of that is a significant factor in how we came up with theses numbers.”