Will storms’ human impacts linger many years?

Published 4:14 pm Thursday, January 11, 2018

The percentage of Beaumont-Port Arthur mortgages in delinquency doubled from October 2016 to October 2017, suggesting that Hurricane and Tropical Storm Harvey’s footprints here are being painfully felt in the local economy.

CoreLogic, an Irvine, California data and analytics company, said while the mortgage market appears to be getting slightly healthier nationally, year over year, delinquencies in Beaumont-Port Arthur — those mortgages 30 days or more past due — have increased overall from an already high 8 percent in October 2016 to 16.3 percent a year later.

Serious delinquencies — 90 or more days past due — increased from 3 percent to 3.9 percent, year over year, in Beaumont-Port Arthur.

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Early stage delinquencies declined nationally by .1 percent month over month in October, CoreLogic’s chief economist Frank Nothaft said. That meant the impact on mortgages felt in September due to storms in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico was lessening.

“While the national impact is waning, the local impact remains,” Nothaft said. Florida continued to experience more early stage delinquencies rising to more serious delinquencies, while delinquencies in transition in Texas appeared to be on the mend.

“The human impact will remain for years,” CoreLogic president Frank Martell said. “For example, the displacement and rebuilding in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina (in 2005) extended for several years and altered the character of the city, an impact that still remains today.”

Martell suggested that economies might get a shot in the arm from rebuilding themselves.

“The reconstruction of the housing stock and infrastructure impacted by the storms should provide a small stimulus to local economies,” he said. “The rebuilding should occur against a backdrop of wage growth, consumer confidence and spending in the national economy which should continue to provide a solid foundation for real estate demand in the storm-impacted areas and beyond.”